According to this morning’s POLITICO Illinois Playbook, Congressman Bill Foster (D, Naperville) is expected to receive help in his favor for his IL-11 on the next, possibly final version of the congressional remap the Democrats in the Illinois General Assembly (ILGA) are preparing to release:
Expect another version of the congressional map to come out before state lawmakers vote on it Thursday.
This time Democratic Rep. Bill Foster’s district could be adjusted. In the most recent map presented to the public Saturday, Foster saw his current district virtually all moved into Rep. Lauren Underwood new district.
A source tells Playbook that the next map, the one lawmakers likely will vote on Thursday, could see some adjustments that help out Foster.
So why help Foster when Reps. Sean Casten and Marie Newman have been put in a position to compete with each other? They’re the new kids on the block with the least seniority.
For reference, here is the latest version of the Chicagoland congressional map ILGA Democrats issued Saturday, with the four of the largest municipalities drafted to be in IL-11 in the cities of Crystal Lake, McHenry and Woodstock, plus the entire village of Huntley in both McHenry and Kane counties:
From the desk of John Lopez: The metrics concerning the proposed IL-11, per Illinois Elections Data, have the district as clearly anti-Trump, with the proposed IL-11 being a +15 Biden district last year, and a +10 Clinton district in 2016.
Looking at two high profile races next year and their metrics in 2016 and 2018 in the proposed IL-11 likely causing concern among Foster and his people: in 2018, the proposed district was only a + 2.43 Pritzker district, and in 2016, a +3 Duckworth district.
Those anti-Trump, pro-moderate Republican numbers could definitely attract Congressman Adam Kinzinger to make IL-11 his new home given he is clearly anti-Trump in spite of his conservative voting record in his 6 terms in the House.
A potential 2022 general election in a Republican year of Foster vs. Kinzinger is a general election Foster and national Democrats would rather not see, at least, under the current map configuration.
So how will IL-11’s Foster get map help?
POLITICO pointed out seniority among Democrats when ILGA Democrats draw maps drives remap decisions when Democrat incumbent Members of Congress interests collide.
So let’s look at the seniority of the 4 Democratic Members of Congress currently drawn into McHenry County:
- IL-08, Raja Krishnamoorthi was first elected to Congress in 2016, so he is a 3-term incumbent who has nearly $11 million cash on hand through September 30, per FEC reports
- IL-09, Jan Schakowsky first elected in 1998 and is a 12-term incumbent. She is the most senior of the 4 Democrats
- IL-10, Brad Schneider first elected in 2012 for 1 term, winning election to 2nd term in 2016. Staggered terms count for full seniority, so Schneider is a 4-term incumbent
- IL-11, Bill Foster first elected to the House in a special election in 2008 in the old IL-14 and won reelection to a full term the same year, lost his 3rd term reelection bid in 2010, but won election in 2012 in IL-11 and has served ever since, so Foster is a 7-term incumbent
With the “pecking order” established, Foster should receive help from ILGA Democrats at the expense of both Krishnamoorthi and Schneider, in that order.
How creative ILGA Democrat mapmakers will be remains to be seen, but one should not rule out some creative cartography which accomplishes the following:
- Reduce if not eliminate the new IL-11 from McHenry County voters’ influence
- Remove Catalina Lauf’s parents home in Seneca Township to prevent a candidacy in IL-11
- Move Schneider and Krishnamoorthi to bring-in McHenry County territory previously drafted to IL-11 breaking up the 4 urban centers of Crystal Lake, Woodstock, McHenry and Huntley
As soon as an updated congressional draft map is released, McHenry County Blog will post it.