McHenry County voters within the new IL-11 are in only competitive U.S. House district based on estimated PVI from Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
On Monday, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter issued its initial ratings for the 2022 congressional elections for Illinois’ 17 congressional districts.
Based on Cook‘s estimated partisan voting index (PVI) of the new districts, the following ratings were assigned:
- IL-17 (open): Tossup, estimated PVI of Democrat +3
- IL-13 (open): Leans Democrat, estimated PVI of Democrat +4
- IL-14 (Underwood): Leans Democrat, estimated PVI of Democrat +4
- IL-06 (Casten & Newman): Leans Democrat, estimated PVI of Democrat +5
- IL-11 (Foster): Likely Democrat, estimated PVI of Democrat +5
All 12 other districts are rated “safe” district, based on the Democrat or Republican incumbent representing them currently or who’ve declared their reelection.
From the desk of John Lopez: Congressional districts seen as competitive will be the most likely to see outside money invested in the respective nominees by PACs and super PACs for the 2022 election cycle.
As has been discussed in other articles, metrics like PVI are too dependent on the presidential election results, which in Cook‘s PVI case for 2022 ratings, uses the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections as the benchmark.
Additionally, the longer tenured incumbent will receive an edge, including Congressman Bill Foster (D, Naperville) in IL-11, given he’s a 7-term incumbent, though his district changed dramatically from a Democrat +11 to a Democrat +5.
The new IL-06, with the same Democrat +5 PVI, has two Democratic incumbents facing each other in the Democratic primary between 2-term Congressman Sean Casten (D, Downers Grove) and freshman Congresswoman Marie Newman (D, LaGrange). Cook factors the possibility supporters of the Democrat primary loser may vote Republican in November of next year, or simply not vote in the IL-06 general race.
While additional factors enter the ratings assigned by Cook outside of PVI, these initial ratings becomes the benchmark, with a variety of other factors possibly impacting the ratings to the point of a “ratings change”, including the perception of the quality of a nominee.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the other major ratings service for congressional races based from the University of Virginia, has yet to issue ratings for the new Illinois congressional districts.