The following analysis comes from commenter “Correcting”:
Sullivan is a stiff candidate.
When he speaks it seems super-phony and rehearsed.
He also seems guarded about his intentions and real beliefs in interviews.
It will be interesting to see what his campaign does in the primary.
He can vastly outspend his competition.
He has more money than all of them combined.
He’ll need to blow through a good chunk of that ~11 million too since he’s coming from behind, nobody knows him, and other candidates are already established.
But WHAT will his message be?
People close to him have got to be thinking about going for the “I’m the most electable guy” narrative but it’s an art to craft that message well in a partisan primary and not offend conservative voters
I bet his people are secretly thinking, “You stupid idiots, if you pick Darren Bailey you’re going to lose to Pritzker by double digits” but they can’t come right out and say that.
Is it possible Sullivan will just ignore his primary opponents and focus on Pritzker?
. Is it possible he won’t talk about himself that much since doing so is invitation to criticism?
He has the money to go that route, and if he’s the one blasting the most anti-Pritzker ads then maybe people will make the connection between opposing Pritzker and his campaign.
Sullivan is the only candidate with enough money to be able to get pollwatchers and lawyers into Crook County, so he might mention that too.
It seems like Bailey already has a lock on it.
His support downstate is strong and those people appear to be sticky supporters.
They LOVE that Bailey challenged Pritzker over the mask issue.
In the Chicago area, the vote will be divided between a bunch of people.
Sullivan will need to expropriate almost all of Rabine and Schimpf’s supporters and decidedly win among the undecided people.
Bailey has a *floor* of 30 and probably more like 40 percent in my opinion.