“I am looking forward to sharing soon what big news is coming soon! But here is a little sneak peak of all the hard work today [Fri, 1/14/22]! The biggest thank you to the amazing crew I worked with today! Thank you for being part of my story and the future for the voices who need to be heard…for our state and Country!”
The above quote was from a social media post from a “candidate X” in IL-11 and accompanied with multiple pics, including the one above, being shot outside a suburban home, with a light on a boom. Coupled with the other pics and the quote, this “candidate X” clearly shooting a video, likely an introductory video to launch their Republican primary campaign in the new 11th Congressional District for the honor to challenge Congressman Bill Foster (D, Naperville) this fall.
Yesterday afternoon, “Correcting”, one of McHenry County Blog‘s most thoughtful commenters, posted the following in the article with video from last week’s floor speech by U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D, AZ).
Only citing comments made about the IL-11 Republican primary for this year and the topic of “candidate X”, and in IL-11, there are two whom McHenry County Blog knows about on the verge of launching their respective congressional bids:
“I’m having serious doubts about John [Lopez]’s claim that someone is going to run against Catalina Lauf in the 11th district U.S. House of Representatives Republican primary.
“So, John, what I’m questioning is why people in D.C. would allegedly, according to you, be thinking about running someone against Lauf.
“It is now the 15th [of January, 2022].
“Just when the heck is this ‘candidate x’ going to announce?
“You said after New Year.
“It’s been over two weeks and now petition circulation has begun.
“Still, I have heard no announcement nor is there anything listed on the FEC’s website.
“I am suspecting that there is no candidate x.
“Lauf is going to sail through the primary without any serious competition and then lose to Foster.
“I have more to say about this, but would appreciate a response from John Lopez before saying more.”Commenter “Correcting”, January 15, 2022, 3:28PM CST
Currently, the IL-11 Republican primary field includes, in the order they announced their candidacies, the following three candidates, with the date they submitted their respective Statements of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC):
- U.S. Army Major (ret.) Michael Pierce, PhD of Naperville, November 2, 2021
- Dean Seppelfrick of Aurora, November 16, 2021
- 2020 IL-14 candidate Catalina Lauf of Woodstock, December 6, 2021
From the desk of John Lopez: There’s an old saying, “timing is everything in politics”. That includes the timing of one’s candidacy announcements.
This past week, including on Saturday, I confirmed the evidence of the two Candidate Xs. They have not announced, and I was asked to keep their confidence of their identity until they formally announce or file FEC paperwork for their IL-11 candidaces.
I, John Lopez, do not betray confidences.
To delineate the two people, Candidate X1 and Candidate X2, based on when I was first informed, and committed to keeping their names private until they announce/file with the FEC.
The picture and quote at the top of this article is from Candidate X1.
Now to continue answering Correcting’s questions from Saturday.
People in D.C. are NOT looking to run someone against Lauf. They are looking to run a viable, winning candidate against Foster in the fall who will win the June 28 primary.
The people in D.C. know a hard-core supporter of former President Trump will not win in the fall against Foster, as every metric of the new IL-11 shows a more moderate mainstream electorate than the IL-14 and IL-16 of the past 10 years.
Many believe a Trumpian cannot win in the new IL-11, in spite of Lauf’s recent attempts to reframe her message as a mainstream conservative, not the America First Trump supporter challenging Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R, Channahon) for most of 2021.
Her messaging in 2021, combined with her well-documented campaign cash high burn-rate (over 72% for 2021), is why recruitment for someone other than Lauf, took place in the last half of 2021.
To many, Lauf’s record since entering politics as a candidate in 2019 ties her to pro-Trump, “America First” Republicans like her advisor through most of 2021, Florida-based Alex Bruesewitz, along with 2020 MD-07 nominee Kim Klacik, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14), Congressman Madison Cawthorn (R, NC-11) and candidate Anna Paulina Luna (R, FL-13), the latter two Lauf has contributed financially, including a total of $3,500 to Luna, through Lauf’s Defense of Freedom PAC.
Back to the timing, the candidates must choose when to announce, and as long as they announce, with enough time to gather the signatures to be on the ballot and avoid a petition challenge, a candidate will do their announcement in their time without other candidate announcements crowding out their announcement.
The first part of next week will be dominated by the expected entry of Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin running for governor. Anyone else announcing on Monday or even Tuesday, will be drowned out by the coverage of Irvin.
Lauf is not going to sail through the primary, nor should she. As documented here on McHenry County Blog since August of 2021, Lauf has been steadily descending from a once-promising candidate whose time may have come, into someone I no longer recognize by her challenges of telling the truth about herself.
Plus, Lauf’s record going head-to-head with an elected Democrat, which happened only once on September 30, 2020, was not pretty. Lauf was clearly bested in a head-to-head with state Senator Cristina Castro (D, Elgin), and she has yet to tangle with another elected Democrat, since.
Yes, the Castro-Lauf exchange was not a fair fight, but in spite of the lack-of-fairness, Lauf was blown-out by Castro, not losing a close-score exchange.
Unless Lauf begins correcting (pun intended) herself and shows respect to voters and stop being the practiced liar of a candidate she became in 2021, if Lauf wins the primary, one will quickly see a repeat of IL-14 in 2020, with donors and super PACs abandoning the nominee to flip the House in other districts with proven, credible and above all, honest Republican nominees.
As the IL-11 candidates X begin to publicly announce their candidacies between now and the end of January, Republican primary voters in the 11th District will need to do their own vetting, applying discernment to nominate the best possible candidate to end Foster’s 7 terms in the U.S. House on November 8.
McHenry County Blog will be here to cover the campaign in 2022, and ensure the truth becomes known about ALL of the candidates.