UPDATE 6/7/22, 10:02AM CDT: Susan Hathaway-Altman filed an amended Financial Disclosure statement to include her new non-profit Feed Our Babies, and to adjust salary figures upward. The amended report can be viewed here.
McHenry County Blog is in contact with Cassandra Tanner Miller’s campaign to determine ETA for her Financial Disclosure filing. She is the final Republican candidate who has not yet filed her Financial Disclosure who’s required to do so.
UPDATE 6/6/22, 11:44AM CDT: Since no change in rank order, in spite of Daily Herald‘s surprise endorsement of Cassandra Tanner Miller, recycling mid-May article with appropriate updates. Catalina Lauf Financial Disclosure published and can be viewed here.
UPDATE 5/19/22, 2:59PM CDT: Susan Hathaway-Altman’s amended Financial Disclosure statement can be viewed here.
The 55-years-old single mother of 3 (2 are dependents) is first Republican candidate to publish her Financial Disclosure statement.
UPDATE 5/18/22, 7:07AM CDT: McHenry County Blog has learned two additional campaigns have requested extensions to file their Financial Disclosure statements (FD) with the U.S. House clerk’s office after this past Monday’s deadlines.
No word if Cassandra Tanner Miller has filed an FD or an extension, but Monday was extra special for CTM — the birth of her and husband Brady Johnson’s son, Clayton Colt late Monday (May 16) afternoon.
Finally, while Catalina Lauf’s endorsed candidate Bo Hines won Monday night in the Republican primary for the open NC-13 U.S. House seat, Lauf’s first congressional endorsement from last July, Congressman Madison Cawthorn, 26, lost his renomination bid to 3-term 62-years-old state Senator Chuck Edwards in NC-11.
Edwards started his business career behind the counter at a local McDonald’s in 1976, and today, is a franchise owner of 7 McDonald’s restaurants in western North Carolina, in addition to serving as a state senator.
Edwards’ victory was helped significantly by the endorsement and financial backing of U.S. Senator Thom Tillis (R, NC). The AP called the race at 10:09PM CDT, and Congressman Cawthorn conceded defeat by 9:30PM CDT.
In NC-13, which is rated a toss-up district, the 26-years-old Hines will face 2-term state Senator Wiley Nickel, 46, on November 8.
Fourth rankings, including the Daily Herald editorial endorsement, the League of Women Voters (LWV) candidates forum and other developments over past month.
The new rankings of June 6, 2022 are as follows with April 16 ranking in “( )”:
- Catalina Lauf (1) — skipping Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview & candidates forum questionable as she continues trouble to consistently tell the truth, but Elise Stefanik & Kat Cammack endorsements keeps Lauf in lead as no primary opponents launched TV commercials in the past month
- Jerry Evans (2) — slight win in editorial endorsement interview and McHenry Township GOP forum, 1st mailer out.
- Mark Carroll (3) — solid candidates forums performances, some digital ads, but to date, no mailers which will be needed to overtake Lauf and Evans and win the primary
- Susan Hathaway-Altman (5) — showing her strength with supply chain issues and leading baby formula drives in Kane County while participating in editorial endorsement interview and candidates forum. Solid performance at McHenry Township GOP.
- Andrea Heeg (6) — signage beginning to appear in central Kane County and launched her website.
- Cassandra Tanner Miller (4) — campaign given up for dead, but can Daily Herald endorsement, and possible repeat in Shaw Media, bring it back to life, possibly with Adam Kinzinger help? Stay tuned.
Through early-June, none of the national committees or super PACs have purchased TV advertising time in the “Likely Democrat” rated 11th District. Media buys for the fall can change at any time, but thus far, the national focus backed up with outside campaign spending in Illinois is in the 17th District.
The Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC issued a press release at the end of April announcing its initial fall TV advertising reservations and no Chicagoland media buys included.
Immediate dates to watch for in the 11th District primary include the following:
- Early-to-mid June candidates forums scheduled, with more details to be announced later:
- Sun City Civics Committee Candidates Forum in Huntley June 14
- June 16, pre-primary reports filings due to the Federal Election Commission (FEC)
=== END OF UPDATE ===
From my latest observations including feedback shared by multiple friends of McHenry County Blog, here is the revised rankings of the 6 Republican candidates competing for IL-11’s Republican nomination.
These rankings will likely change as additional information is published, or the candidates reach out to voters through grassroots campaigning, mailers, digital and/or TV commercial advertising.
#1: Catalina Lauf of Woodstock, the nominal frontrunner who had a mixed month but could breakout due to North Carolina Republican primary if her endorsed candidate wins
Lauf’s questionable decisions to miss the Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview and the LWV candidates forum, in spite of her lame excuse could cost her more than an editorial newspaper endorsement from the Daily Herald and Shaw Local Media.
Additionally, McHenry County Blog shared Lauf had lost her endorsement from Turning Point Action.
Yet last Wednesday, Lauf was endorsed by House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21) through the Elevate PAC, joining 21 other Republican women being endorsed. E-PAC endorsed candidates, going into Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and North Carolina, are currently 3-0 winning primaries.
Speaking of North Carolina, last August, Lauf endorsed congressional candidate Bo Hines (R, NC-13) in the crowded primary field for the open House seat, which is rated a toss-up district. Along with former President Trump and the Club for Growth Action super PAC, Lauf backed the 26-years-old former collegiate football player who’s worked as a congressional staffer and a gubernatorial staffer in different states.
Like Lauf, Hines has few significant life experiences given his age, though Hines is married.
Should Hines win the nomination outright on Tuesday, and in North Carolina, the top vote getter must receive at least 30% of the primary vote to avoid a runoff, Lauf’s early endorsement may convince Trump and/or the Club for Growth to back Lauf pre-primary. The fact IL-11 is not a toss-up, but a “Likely Democrat” rated district may prevent Trump or Club for Growth from backing Lauf prior to June 28.
Lauf is still challenged telling the truth, and she tried to extend her Financial Disclosure statement filing until mid-August, well after the primary. The U.S. House clerk rejected her mid-August extension request, and Lauf’s new due date is May 29.
#2: Jerry Evans of Warrenville
While Jerry Evans continues to win local endorsements from local elected officials and Republican organizations, Evans won the prestigious McHenry County GOPac endorsement.
While Evans has more endorsements, and a win in the Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview, Evans’ performance at the LWV candidates forum was not his best, and in my honest opinion, Evans finished a close 2nd in Batavia.
Evans had a solid interview on WIND’s Black and Right on Saturday, and he’s still seen as the main threat to Lauf winning the primary. That said, Evans’ campaign must begin getting his message out in a mailer, digital marketing and/or TV commercial, or Lauf could begin to cruise.
#3: Mark Carroll of North Aurora
North Aurora Village Trustee Mark Carroll had a very active month, which included several endorsements, including from the Board of Directors of Illinois Family Action and the Lake County Republican Central Committee’s executive committee.
But the biggest highlight for Carroll was his late April visit to Mar a Lago to attend Congresswoman Mary Miller (R, IL-15) fundraising event with special guest former President Trump.
Carroll attended the Miller event with gubernatorial candidate, state Senator Darren Bailey (R, Xenia) and congressional candidate, Kendall County Republican Chairman Jim Marter (R, Oswego).
He’ll be sharing the stage with Bailey and Marter at Tuesday afternoon’s Illinois Family Action reception in Glen Ellyn.
Carroll had a slight win in the LWV candidates forum, and has openly criticized frontrunner Lauf for missing the event. Additionally, three of his supporters attending the LWV forum in Batavia last week were told to turn their “Mark Carroll for Congress” t-shirts they were wearing inside-out for the taping of the forum, which was, in my honest opinion, the worst act the LWV did at its candidates forum last week.
#4: Susan Hathaway-Altman of unincorporated Geneva
After participating in the Daily Herald editorial interview and the LWV candidates forum in Batavia plus appearing at the McHenry County Republicans’ social event on May 4 in Crystal Lake, Susan Hathaway-Altman successfully began introducing herself to voters.
While she had good performances at the two candidates events, the LWV forum was where she started highlighting her business record of working in the supply chain over her 30-years career in business.
She also showed she can push back against one of her opponents (Carroll) and object when Carroll made the claim he was the only candidate to publish his platform, which Hathaway-Altman pointed out was inaccurate.
Entering early voting, Hathaway-Altman is the top of the 2nd-tier candidates, but her work to address the baby formula supply chain shortages is giving her visibility.
#5: Andrea Heeg of unincorporated Geneva
Andrea Heeg, like frontrunner Lauf, skipped both the Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview, and was pro-active over her decision to miss the LWV candidates forum in Batavia.
Heeg launched her campaign website, and I have seen Heeg signs popping up in central Kane County, particularly in Campton Township and the village of Elburn.
#6: Cassandra Tanner Miller of Elgin
For all practical purposes, Cassandra Tanner Miller’s campaign is dead.
The attendance at her Geneva fundraiser at the end of April was very small, and if she raised enough to pay off her vendors her FEC filing showed she owed at the end of March, then it was a success, but nothing more to influence the race.
What do you think of the 11th Congressional District Republican primary field May 15 revised rankings? Are they valid? Please discuss in comments, and please keep all comments on the points raised in this article.