IL-11 UPDATEDx5: Early June Brings No Change to Rankings of Republican Candidates as Catalina Lauf Publishes Financial Disclosure Statement & Susan Hathaway-Altman Files Amendment

UPDATE 6/7/22, 10:02AM CDT: Susan Hathaway-Altman filed an amended Financial Disclosure statement to include her new non-profit Feed Our Babies, and to adjust salary figures upward. The amended report can be viewed here.

McHenry County Blog is in contact with Cassandra Tanner Miller’s campaign to determine ETA for her Financial Disclosure filing. She is the final Republican candidate who has not yet filed her Financial Disclosure who’s required to do so.

UPDATE 6/6/22, 11:44AM CDT: Since no change in rank order, in spite of Daily Herald‘s surprise endorsement of Cassandra Tanner Miller, recycling mid-May article with appropriate updates. Catalina Lauf Financial Disclosure published and can be viewed here.

UPDATE 5/19/22, 2:59PM CDT: Susan Hathaway-Altman’s amended Financial Disclosure statement can be viewed here.

The 55-years-old single mother of 3 (2 are dependents) is first Republican candidate to publish her Financial Disclosure statement.

UPDATE 5/18/22, 7:07AM CDT: McHenry County Blog has learned two additional campaigns have requested extensions to file their Financial Disclosure statements (FD) with the U.S. House clerk’s office after this past Monday’s deadlines.

Chuck Edwards

No word if Cassandra Tanner Miller has filed an FD or an extension, but Monday was extra special for CTM — the birth of her and husband Brady Johnson’s son, Clayton Colt late Monday (May 16) afternoon.

Finally, while Catalina Lauf’s endorsed candidate Bo Hines won Monday night in the Republican primary for the open NC-13 U.S. House seat, Lauf’s first congressional endorsement from last July, Congressman Madison Cawthorn, 26, lost his renomination bid to 3-term 62-years-old state Senator Chuck Edwards in NC-11.

Edwards started his business career behind the counter at a local McDonald’s in 1976, and today, is a franchise owner of 7 McDonald’s restaurants in western North Carolina, in addition to serving as a state senator.

Edwards’ victory was helped significantly by the endorsement and financial backing of U.S. Senator Thom Tillis (R, NC). The AP called the race at 10:09PM CDT, and Congressman Cawthorn conceded defeat by 9:30PM CDT.

In NC-13, which is rated a toss-up district, the 26-years-old Hines will face 2-term state Senator Wiley Nickel, 46, on November 8.

Fourth rankings, including the Daily Herald editorial endorsement, the League of Women Voters (LWV) candidates forum and other developments over past month.

The new rankings of June 6, 2022 are as follows with April 16 ranking in “( )”:

  1. Catalina Lauf (1) — skipping Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview & candidates forum questionable as she continues trouble to consistently tell the truth, but Elise Stefanik & Kat Cammack endorsements keeps Lauf in lead as no primary opponents launched TV commercials in the past month
  2. Jerry Evans (2) — slight win in editorial endorsement interview and McHenry Township GOP forum, 1st mailer out.
  3. Mark Carroll (3) — solid candidates forums performances, some digital ads, but to date, no mailers which will be needed to overtake Lauf and Evans and win the primary
  4. Susan Hathaway-Altman (5) — showing her strength with supply chain issues and leading baby formula drives in Kane County while participating in editorial endorsement interview and candidates forum. Solid performance at McHenry Township GOP.
  5. Andrea Heeg (6) — signage beginning to appear in central Kane County and launched her website.
  6. Cassandra Tanner Miller (4) — campaign given up for dead, but can Daily Herald endorsement, and possible repeat in Shaw Media, bring it back to life, possibly with Adam Kinzinger help? Stay tuned.

Through early-June, none of the national committees or super PACs have purchased TV advertising time in the “Likely Democrat” rated 11th District. Media buys for the fall can change at any time, but thus far, the national focus backed up with outside campaign spending in Illinois is in the 17th District.

The Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC issued a press release at the end of April announcing its initial fall TV advertising reservations and no Chicagoland media buys included.

Approved Congressional Map 10/29/21

Immediate dates to watch for in the 11th District primary include the following:

  • Early-to-mid June candidates forums scheduled, with more details to be announced later:
    • Sun City Civics Committee Candidates Forum in Huntley June 14
  • June 16, pre-primary reports filings due to the Federal Election Commission (FEC)

=== END OF UPDATE ===

From my latest observations including feedback shared by multiple friends of McHenry County Blog, here is the revised rankings of the 6 Republican candidates competing for IL-11’s Republican nomination.

These rankings will likely change as additional information is published, or the candidates reach out to voters through grassroots campaigning, mailers, digital and/or TV commercial advertising.

#1: Catalina Lauf of Woodstock, the nominal frontrunner who had a mixed month but could breakout due to North Carolina Republican primary if her endorsed candidate wins

Lauf’s questionable decisions to miss the Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview and the LWV candidates forum, in spite of her lame excuse could cost her more than an editorial newspaper endorsement from the Daily Herald and Shaw Local Media.

Additionally, McHenry County Blog shared Lauf had lost her endorsement from Turning Point Action.

Yet last Wednesday, Lauf was endorsed by House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21) through the Elevate PAC, joining 21 other Republican women being endorsed. E-PAC endorsed candidates, going into Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and North Carolina, are currently 3-0 winning primaries.

Speaking of North Carolina, last August, Lauf endorsed congressional candidate Bo Hines (R, NC-13) in the crowded primary field for the open House seat, which is rated a toss-up district. Along with former President Trump and the Club for Growth Action super PAC, Lauf backed the 26-years-old former collegiate football player who’s worked as a congressional staffer and a gubernatorial staffer in different states.

Like Lauf, Hines has few significant life experiences given his age, though Hines is married.

Should Hines win the nomination outright on Tuesday, and in North Carolina, the top vote getter must receive at least 30% of the primary vote to avoid a runoff, Lauf’s early endorsement may convince Trump and/or the Club for Growth to back Lauf pre-primary. The fact IL-11 is not a toss-up, but a “Likely Democrat” rated district may prevent Trump or Club for Growth from backing Lauf prior to June 28.

Lauf is still challenged telling the truth, and she tried to extend her Financial Disclosure statement filing until mid-August, well after the primary. The U.S. House clerk rejected her mid-August extension request, and Lauf’s new due date is May 29.

Jerry Evans

#2: Jerry Evans of Warrenville

While Jerry Evans continues to win local endorsements from local elected officials and Republican organizations, Evans won the prestigious McHenry County GOPac endorsement.

While Evans has more endorsements, and a win in the Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview, Evans’ performance at the LWV candidates forum was not his best, and in my honest opinion, Evans finished a close 2nd in Batavia.

Evans had a solid interview on WIND’s Black and Right on Saturday, and he’s still seen as the main threat to Lauf winning the primary. That said, Evans’ campaign must begin getting his message out in a mailer, digital marketing and/or TV commercial, or Lauf could begin to cruise.

Mark Carroll

#3: Mark Carroll of North Aurora

North Aurora Village Trustee Mark Carroll had a very active month, which included several endorsements, including from the Board of Directors of Illinois Family Action and the Lake County Republican Central Committee’s executive committee.

But the biggest highlight for Carroll was his late April visit to Mar a Lago to attend Congresswoman Mary Miller (R, IL-15) fundraising event with special guest former President Trump.

Carroll attended the Miller event with gubernatorial candidate, state Senator Darren Bailey (R, Xenia) and congressional candidate, Kendall County Republican Chairman Jim Marter (R, Oswego).

He’ll be sharing the stage with Bailey and Marter at Tuesday afternoon’s Illinois Family Action reception in Glen Ellyn.

Carroll had a slight win in the LWV candidates forum, and has openly criticized frontrunner Lauf for missing the event. Additionally, three of his supporters attending the LWV forum in Batavia last week were told to turn their “Mark Carroll for Congress” t-shirts they were wearing inside-out for the taping of the forum, which was, in my honest opinion, the worst act the LWV did at its candidates forum last week.

Susan Hathaway-Altman

#4: Susan Hathaway-Altman of unincorporated Geneva

After participating in the Daily Herald editorial interview and the LWV candidates forum in Batavia plus appearing at the McHenry County Republicans’ social event on May 4 in Crystal Lake, Susan Hathaway-Altman successfully began introducing herself to voters.

While she had good performances at the two candidates events, the LWV forum was where she started highlighting her business record of working in the supply chain over her 30-years career in business.

She also showed she can push back against one of her opponents (Carroll) and object when Carroll made the claim he was the only candidate to publish his platform, which Hathaway-Altman pointed out was inaccurate.

Entering early voting, Hathaway-Altman is the top of the 2nd-tier candidates, but her work to address the baby formula supply chain shortages is giving her visibility.

Andrea Heeg

#5: Andrea Heeg of unincorporated Geneva

Andrea Heeg, like frontrunner Lauf, skipped both the Daily Herald editorial endorsement interview, and was pro-active over her decision to miss the LWV candidates forum in Batavia.

Heeg launched her campaign website, and I have seen Heeg signs popping up in central Kane County, particularly in Campton Township and the village of Elburn.

Cassandra Tanner Miller

#6: Cassandra Tanner Miller of Elgin

For all practical purposes, Cassandra Tanner Miller’s campaign is dead.

The attendance at her Geneva fundraiser at the end of April was very small, and if she raised enough to pay off her vendors her FEC filing showed she owed at the end of March, then it was a success, but nothing more to influence the race.

What do you think of the 11th Congressional District Republican primary field May 15 revised rankings? Are they valid? Please discuss in comments, and please keep all comments on the points raised in this article.


Comments

IL-11 UPDATEDx5: Early June Brings No Change to Rankings of Republican Candidates as Catalina Lauf Publishes Financial Disclosure Statement & Susan Hathaway-Altman Files Amendment — 45 Comments

  1. Whodoes Lopez support.

    Yeah,we already now about his nonsupport off Heeg and Catalina, but who does he support and way.

    Always sniping at Catalina doesn’t show why others are possibly better.

  2. Eddie Munster, whom I support, if I support anyone at all, is not important.

    The truth is important.

    Lauf continues to consistently not tell the truth every time she is interviewed and claims her first political job was the Department of Commerce during the Trump Administration, when the truth is her first political job was working for Governor Bruce Rauner’s reelection campaign for 10 months in 2018.

    The truth, not one person who worked with Lauf, be it at Citizens for Rauner, Commerce Dept or any other company she worked that’s not owned by a member of her family, will give her a reference.

    She claims she’ll be a “fighter” and a “lion” in Congress, yet when it comes to facing voters in a public setting, she plays the cowardly lion and skips the event.

    She can’t even give a credible, verifiable example that she can fight let alone win.

    And what about her record not helping others win election in high-profile races in Illinois?

    And I’m honest to note Lauf is the top-ranked candidate, and unless the other candidates do something big and quick, Lauf will cruise to the nomination.

  3. Actually, with RINO, skunk, Irvin/Tadelman types, like you, always attacking her —- for God knows why— she might grow a hard shell and turn out good.

  4. Eddie Munster,

    “RINO, skunk, Irvin/Tadelman types, like you…”

    [Loud game show buzzer sounds]

    You’re dialing the wrong number.

    “she [Lauf] might grow a hard shell and turn out good.”

    When one enters politics, especially at the congressional level, they better be tough, with a hard shell, and if my coverage helps Lauf grow in toughness, that may be God’s will all along.

    One does not display or grow toughness skipping events to talk about their candidacy with voters and/or local media.

    Whoever wins the primary, they better be tough/”hard shell” because Foster and the Democrats, with millions of dollars at their disposal, will show no mercy with their attacks.

    Nothing I’ve written compares to what the primary winner has coming to them for the fall campaign.

  5. John, can you explain to the class (if there even is an explanation) just what Lauf has going that makes her endorsement of a congressional candidate in North Carolina (or Dogpatch, AR) something of value?

    She may very well be a nice person and perhaps even a viable candidate but she seems totally lacking in substance.

    What her “secret sauce” that gives her endorsement value?

  6. It’s not about her accomplishments.

    She has a lot of followers, and she has a lot of followers because she’s good looking.

    Don’t overthink it.

    Social media influencers are often attractive young females who have a simp army.

    Then people hawking a cause or a product benefit from that social media influencer’s endorsement cuz it directs the simp army over there.

    She got paraded around in the media in 2019/2020 not because of her accomplishments but because of her looks.

    It’s a self-reinforcing mechanism where someone is good looking, gets followers, gets in the media because they are good looking and or popular, then gets more followers through the media exposure, then becomes more influential, then is wanted by more media, etc.

    It’s mutually beneficial to both Bo and Catalina because her simps check him out by her mentioning him and his people then notice her and then they’ll simp for her, so they can both gain followers and potentially donations.

    He gets exposed to a bigger audience since she has a lot of followers.

    That’s the value.

    More potential followers, more potential money, more potential retweets and engagement, get the algo to pick you up, more people notice, more people follow, more money, rinse and repeat.

    It has nothing to do with what YOU think of as substance.

    Her SUBSTANCE is that she’s good looking.

    THAT is why she has so many followers lol

    Also, sometimes these people have mutual handlers/managers so if they can get more crossover engagement then that helps the managers.

    X Strategies LLC does consulting for both of them.

    They both pay Sunrise Data Services as well.

    They both have expenses to Chain Bridge Bank and Middletown Valley Bank and Elite Card Processing.

    They’re using a lot of the same services/businesses.

    They’re both 20 something millennial candidates who didn’t hold public office prior to running for congress.

    They’re both running as big Trump supporters / non-establishment.

    There’s a big section of the GOP professional class looking for young “talent” to replace the oldies and to compete with Democrats for the youth vote.

    If you go to any campaign training or leadership sorts of schools they have scouts there and they are not looking for the most intelligent people or the ones with the best memories, but it’s more of a combination of saying things with confidence and being good looking.

    In other words, actors/models.

    AOC was one of several politicians picked out at an audition.

    Both sides cast for prospective politicians and they go with good looking young people.

    Sometimes they are part of modeling or acting agencies before getting into politics too.

    I’m just saying bro politics is like Hollywood in a lot of ways.

    It’s a business and it’s fake lol it’s not about “substance” man this is a game.

    Cal is old school he’s from the days when pols were like mob bosses or farmers but the game is sort of different now cuz of the media and politics being in your face all the time.

    And with social media it’s all tied up with clicks now.

    That’s why you see candidates showing their tummy, showing their cleavage.

    It’s about the simp army.

  7. Lopez tries to come across as an “independent” conservative leaning observer while at the same time claiming he is a contributor to Politico a DC Swamp institution based in none other than DC.

    John, please tell us one politician, and Trump’s not a politician, that went to DC by telling the truth.

    Maybe you can start with Mark Kirk, Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth.

    And as far as Altman, she should have kept with her maiden name instead of being a hyphenator acting like a fundraiser of baby formula is going to help her.

    What’s her position on Abbott and Buttigieg working to cause the problem in the first place?

    She should look into supply chain problems caused by that company (Abbott) instead of pandering to the IL RINO’s and liberal independents.

    What’s her opinion of shipping formula to the illegal’s?

    Why hasn’t she asked how Buttigieg is breast feeding his adopted child since he is gay?

    Finally, John, your map reflects everything north of McHenry as D-10 which you give 0.00 coverage of.

    “Lopez: Early-to-mid June candidates forums scheduled, with more details to be announced later:
    – McHenry Township Republicans June 4 in Spring Grove”

    Am I confused again?

    I thought that’s Richmond-Burton territory located between Fox Lake and Richmond.

    Check your map.

    Finally, 2, The pic Lauf has up in that Twitter post is an imitation of Boebert sans the gun at her hip.

    She might want to think about that and put a pistol at her side.

  8. I am new to this website and am enjoying the local politics and spirited discussion!

    @ Correcting: thank you for your interesting post. I’m not familiar with your word “simp” used as noun, adjective or verb, except what I can glean from the context. Is this short for sympathize or…?

    Thank you!

  9. JT, you are correct that Spring Grove is located in the tenth district not the eleventh, however, sometimes forums do not take place inside the district but may take place outside of them by a few miles.

    It’s possible they just wanted to do one in McHenry County further north for people in the northern part of the district (people in the Lake County part of the district aren’t too far from Spring Grove either) and they settled on Spring Grove because there was available space there.

    You’d have to contact the organizers to find out why they chose that location.

    Maybe Erik Sivertsen?

    Also of note: Richardson Farm in Spring Grove where the event is scheduled is not in McHenry Township yet the event is being organized by McHenry Township Republicans (I think there was a Darren Bailey meet and greet there not long ago so it must be a regular go-to), and the forum John listed in Plainfield might be in the fourteenth district but seems like an okay location for people who live in Aurora, Naperville, Romeoville, and Bolingbrook.

    As to why you don’t see more coverage of the tenth district on this blog, my guess is it’s a “safe Democratic” district unlike the eleventh which is rated “leans Democratic,” plus the primaries are uncontested (just one Republican and just one Democrat running in the tenth).

    There’s not a lot to report on.

    If you get a lead on something interesting in the new tenth, you can always send it to Cal.

    I don’t follow Brad Schneider too closely myself but found this interview with him on ABC.

    It’s him talking about legislation he wants to pass to combat white supremacy.

    He says the House passed it a year or two ago but Ron Johnson of Wisconsin blocked it in the Senate.

    Senator Johnson is going to be in one of the most high stakes, most watched, and competitive races in November.

    If Dems flip that seat and hold elsewhere then they don’t have to worry as much about Manchin defecting.

    Republicans need to help Johnson out with donations, but they also need to sort out problems with election integrity especially in places like Madison, Green Bay, and Milwaukee or the Dems will steal the election like Biden did.

    Johnson has been a strong voice raising awareness about COVID lies along with Senator Paul. The media loathes him.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_g_qNDTfK4

    Something you might not hear on the news, but even the left-liberal ACLU has repeatedly penned opposition to senators about this so-called terrorism prevention bill saying it is an invasion of privacy, is too broad, curtails freedom of speech, and, ironically, could be used to target minorities. Whether they will keep that opposition up based on principle or fold to Democrats because of political pressure and Biden being in office, we will see.

    That group was also in the news recently for opposing Lori Lightfoot’s new park curfew order.

    And there’s this scandal, but seeing as Schneider is in a safe Dem district it won’t matter.

    https://thehill.com/news/3261987-former-congressional-aide-pleads-guilty-to-theft-through-bonuses-inflated-salary/

  10. Lopez, come clean about your biased reporting.

    You have no transparency. Or credibility.

  11. Lopez is an inane, insipid, sad joke.
    I’ve given up on his posts long ago.
    Useless, biased, liberal ranting just isn’t worth the time to read.

  12. Lots to respond to here and it’s been a very busy day.

    First JT and IL-10. There is no contested primary in IL-10 for either party. There’s nothing to cover until after the June 28 primary.

    Same for IL-09. In IL-16, you have Congressman Darin LaHood running with no-name token primary opponents with no money. LaHood winning is a foregone conclusion.

    Same with IL-08 (Kane County including Algonquin and Huntley), five candidates who want to go up against a 3-term incumbent who’ll have nearly $12 million in the bank.

    IL-11 will always be the priority for coverage because it’s neither safe Democrat (IL-08, IL-09, IL-10) or safe Republican (IL-16).

    Currently IL-11 is rated “Likely Democrat”, and depending on who wins the primary, it’ll stay competitive, or go safe Democrat.

  13. Eddie Munster, I’ve already come clean about me and I care about the truth. You refuse to believe me, so will have to leave it with opinions vary.

    Gary Puckett: You’ll find I’m right, and all the truth will come out over the next 40 days.

    CLM: Good to see you again. Same to you, opinions vary, and the truth will all come out, as I told you months ago.

  14. Lopez, why do you censor my posts?

    It is doubtful that anyone will speak up for truth anymore in this technological age of post-truth falsehoods.

    It is going to be just lies from now on, leaving us regular folk to try our best to glean what’s going on from the half truths interspersed with the outright lies all around.

    Lopez, you part of the problem.

  15. Yes , Mr. Lopez, you haven’t come clean on the transparency issue.

    If you support a candidate, you ought to provide that info!

  16. @Jeff
    No, simp does not mean sympathetic and it doesn’t mean, as it is commonly misused, simpleton/simple minded either.

    When we speak of “simps” we are talking about “thirsty” (read horny) guys who suck up to women they find attractive.

    This means they will go out of their way to promote or defend the woman.

    It’s similar to saying that they are putting the woman on a pedestal.

    Simp can also take the verb form.

    “Dude, stop simping for Catalina. We get that she’s hot but this is embarrassing.”

    “She is beautiful and wonderful and a great MAGA candidate and you must be a RINO if you won’t vote for her!”

    “Quit being a simp. You can’t even explain how she’s a good candidate other than you like to see her tummy.”

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Simp

  17. Lopez, Please don’t waste our our time with your amateur reading of tea leaves or your absurd pretence at objective truth by personal observation..

  18. Artful Dodger, you’ve got the wrong number, and if you tried to fight back with facts, you wouldn’t have to resort to your description of God’s gift of discernment.

    Next 40 days will prove to be fun, and the truth will come out.

  19. Lopez – what/who are you using this PAC for that you reactivated?

  20. Shake, time will tell, but thankful with signing of SB 3215, it won’t be used for a Mental Health referendum.

    I’m still very upset with what one of the AG candidates called mental health patients. Still calming down, before I let loose on him.

  21. Lopez, you are very similar to Ness.

    I’m voting fo Catalina and Colatorti bc of you!

    And Tadelman takes the BLM knee here!

  22. Lopez, time to stop castigating Catalina.

    Focus on other candidates’ real or imagined foibles for a change.

    Why won’t you ever do a story about how great Rauner’s sanctuary state madness has cost us big in crime, welfare and chaos?

  23. Lopez censored me above. Why’d you do it?

    As Voltaire said, ‘you can always tell who rules over you by finding out out who you may not criticize.’

  24. Why did the Illinois Family Institute leave Catalina out?

    Not good.

    Did she not respond or did they can her?

  25. If this blog starts censoring for non-libelous, non-pornographic, non-obscene reasons, it’s time to move on and let start another.

  26. Dacy, from my understanding, Catalina Lauf did not respond to Illinois Family Institute issues survey.

    Fault lies squarely on Lauf.

  27. Dacy – Lopez censors comments all the time. And he writes for Illinois Family Action, IFI’s political/advocacy arm.

  28. Dacy, because her campaign strategy includes campaigning everywhere but IL11.

    She doesn’t extend for endorsements in IL.

    She admits such on camera.

    There is no denying that she doesn’t care about most of the district if you’ve been at any events up and down.

    Mailers are a good strategy…to ignore verbal with constituents.

    Look no further than Lauf’s public interview with Bretz – Q: “what’s your favorite thing about Illinois?” A: “uhh, Portillo’s?” GMAFB.

    Foster will destroy her.

    At NTRO, Q:“why should we choose Catalina and what is a strength of hers?”

    A:”Catalina is good at getting micro-donations.”

    Talking points shouldn’t cut it for you smart people here anymore.

    Even her mailers stretch the truth…what small business initiatives or tax cuts has she worked on for you IL11?

    It makes for good campaigning though.

    You really want somebody that ignores most of the district and that slanders opponents/groups or somebody that says they’ll talk to everybody and leads by legislation?

    I get it though, somebody like Prince Rupert will waste their vote to spite somebody or because they hate looking for truth on their own.

    More fact: The dems are licking their chops to have her front and center for Foster.

  29. Lopez loves to censor things here. I’ve been censored numerous times.

    Warning: don’t you dare stray from the approved MSM line! NEVER ID our masters and overlords as coming from a certain ethnic group.

    Various links to other sites are removed by this toad.

  30. Hint: Why is the Nefarious turd answering for Lopez immediately my post?

  31. LOL – sure, dude.

    Me saying that Lopez censors all the time means that I’m Lopez.

    🤣🤣🤣🤣

  32. I’ve grown tired of Lopez mudslinging at Catalina.

    Cal needs to put the brakes on Loon Lopez for censoring.

  33. Lopez fancies himself some sort of deep thinking conservative.

    But he ain’t right in the head.

    He cannot fathom what and who are behind America’s collapse. His wishy washy wish world would evaporate in a flash.

  34. It’s 3 weeks until the primary, and much is afoot.

    CPTKangaroo, I don’t sling mud or anything else at Catalina Lauf or anyone else.

    Galatians 6:7 applies here, and it applies to women, too.

    God makes me who I am, and His will be done.

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