From the desk of John Lopez: Lauf’s victory is a win, but does not impress me she is nothing more than “sizzle” as her transition to the general election begins
First, I will say I do congratulate Catalina Lauf (R, Woodstock) on her Republican primary victory in the 11th Congressional District where she bested 5 candidates with a plurality of 31.1% of the vote.
The Associated Press (AP) has yet to call the IL-11 Republican primary race, but that is merely a formality which should happen sooner than later, but the AP will take their own time.
As a win is a win, and with Illinois’ winner-take-all primary elections, Lauf will face Congressman Bill Foster (D, Naperville) this fall.
Before Lauf begins sending out emails/letters, the first thing Lauf will need to do, prior to 11:59PM CDT Thursday night, June 30, is to raise as much money as she can, so all of her supporters during the primary can begin helping Lauf prepare for November 8 by helping her raise cash, which will be reported to the FEC two weeks from Friday.
As Lauf continues transitioning for the general election campaign, many of the points brought up back in the June 19 article “Day after Primary and What Happens to Winner” will begin to happen.
Lauf, for the first time will face brutal attacks, through TV ads and other means going forward by either Foster’s campaign, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) or one of the Democratic super PACs like the House Majority PAC.
Nothing Lauf has faced to date has prepared her for the onslaught that is coming. Lauf, going back to 2019, has claimed to be a “fighter”, and now will be when all find out if Lauf really is what she claims.
Here’s an example of what’s coming. This late Tuesday night tweet from the DCCC targeting newly minted Republican nominee Esther Joy King (R, IL-17), transcribed for ease of reading:
“Esther Joy King won the IL-17 GOP primary.
“Before repeatedly calling for and praising SCOTUS’ decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Esther touted Trump’s Big Lie and oversaw the loss of thousands of jobs in the state under Governor Rauner.
“She has no business serving in Congress.”
DCCC tweet, 6/28/22
.
Just think, Esther Joy King never worked within the Trump Administration or for Governor Rauner’s reelection campaign as Lauf has.
As for me, I’ll be writing more about this general election match-up, either here on McHenry County Blog or on Illinois Family Action, and explain fully, in spite of her primary win Tuesday, my opinion of Lauf remains unchanged.
But for the immediate future, I’ll be watching how Lauf begins her transition to a general election campaign, and how she weathers the first of many attacks the Democrats and their allies will throw at her, as soon as today.
UPDATE 6/29/22, 9:42AM CDT: The AP officially called the IL-11 Republican primary race for Catalina Lauf at 9:35AM CDT:
UPDATE 6/29/22, 9:30AM CDT: While Catalina Lauf not mentioned by name, Congressman Bill Foster’s political Twitter account posted this meme which might be seen as the first shot fired between Foster and Lauf which will lead to the November 8 general election.
Pay particular note to this excerpt:
“We’re facing a Republican Party that is becoming more extreme and more interested in instituting an genda of control – controlling the personal health care decisions of women and casting doubt on free and fair elections instead of focusing on the issues facing working families in Illinois.”
It just proves the voter’s can be conned. Sad.
But she won handily.
No recount with the percentages.
Don’t remember hinting recount.
Lauf won with 31.1% of the primary vote, meaning 67.9% of primary voters cast their ballots for someone else.
She spent a lot of money to get 15 thousand votes.
Like 1.3 million.
Although I hear half a million since she switched to the 11th.
Still… do the math.
She raised about 1.4 million but spent almost all of it.
Now she’s starting from scratch against Foster who has a seven figure lead on her.
Saying it’s an uphill battle is an understatement.
King has a ton of money and is running against Sorenson instead of Wallace (I think a lot of people thought Wallace would be a stronger general election candidate).
Plus it’s a more friendly district for Republicans than the 11th.
Lauf can’t change what her district looks like or who she runs against, but hopefully she will do a better job at budgeting money.
It’s tempting to say “she won so who cares” but she blew through pretty much all of her money.
Hathaway-Altman and Carroll were both very efficient with their money if you think of dollars per vote.
She got what maybe 40 percent more votes than runner up Evans but spent how much more money than him?
At least 4x probably.
She needs to find ways to be more efficient.
Who is John Lopez and how many times did he run for political office?
I am happy to see young people run for office in McHenry County the Republican Party need this.
CAL, Can you find some one that is a little more positive for opinions for your Blog?
If we agree to get her 100,000 followers will she agree to give up the nomination?
This seems to be an eye poke to John Lopez, who seems to be a sore loser, even though he wasn’t even in the race.
Paul Revere, nope, nothing of the sort. Just telling the truth with the reality of what’s about to happen to Lauf, and should she be taking the oath of office January 3rd, no matter how one cuts it, Lauf would have earned it.
In case that Mark S. character missed my articles, going into yesterday, I posted Lauf entered election day as the frontrunner, though not at level to merit an endorsement from President Trump.
These numbers bear that out, 31.1% is a win, not a mandate, when over 2/3 of primary electorate wanted someone else.
A mandate (50% plus of primary vote) would have merited a a possible ratings change in Republicans favor in IL-11. That won’t happen, unless Lauf-to-Foster polling reveals real weakness in Foster.
We’ll have to wait and see the 1st barrage of attacks, once the AP calls the race for Lauf.
Pia Zadora Goes to Washington.
It almost sounds like a childrens’ book.
Nevertheless, she won’t win.
** I think a lot of people thought Wallace would be a stronger general election candidate**
I don’t know any Dem that thought that.
John: give me a break.
You have some personal issue against Lauf.
Let it go…it’s now absurd and embarrassing.
If you persist, you’ll sound weird, frankly.
Well think about it.
She’d do better with blacks in Rockford, she’d do better with women, she was the favorite to win, and she had a lot of endorsements.
how is a gay white weatherman a better candidate???
I think you’re going to have a major enthusiasm problem with the blacks in the fall.
This joe biden guy SUCKS.
CLM: Then I’ll sound weird, frankly. As long as I tell the truth, there’s nothing wrong with what I say.
My writings aren’t like a Republican Party that no longer exists where the day after the primary, one has a “unity” day.
While I’m a conservative, I’m a God-fearing man, first, and that means I’ll tell the truth.
Catalina Lauf winning the primary doesn’t absolve her of all the faults I’ve written about Lauf.
She’s only won the primary, and in little over 4 months she goes for the ultimate prize.
Winning the primary yesterday means nothing unless she wins the general over Foster.
I’m willing to wait and see if Lauf transforms herself into a mature general election nominee, which we should see by mid July.
Until then, I’ll continue to analyze this primary, including Lauf’s brilliant move to completely ignore the local Republican parties.
Will she be able to do that with the NRCC remains to be seen.
The Democrat Party has long implied, or falsely claimed, that THEY are thee political party looking out for women.
It will be interesting to watch over the next 4 months how they attack, politically, this young, attractive and gracious woman, Catalina.
That’s precisely right, bred winner.
Even IF what John Lopez says about Lauf were even ballpark accurate (which I totally disagree, but let me play along in John’s anti-Lauf world)…the entire Democrat party is a corrupt fraud they routinely lie and swindle the taxpayer and they have destroyed our state.
The least you should do, John, is hold your nose and vote for Lauf and stop sabotaging her efforts.
You’re playing into the hands of the most corrupt, most septic, most failed political movement in the history of the USA….Illinois’ modern day democrat mafia.
The state is a joke, a sinking ship – and you’re worried about Lauf’s “experience” and “knowledge”.
Give us all a break.
Direct your efforts at the democrat crime syndicate.
** She’d do better with blacks in Rockford, she’d do better with women, she was the favorite to win, and she had a lot of endorsements.**
She didn’t do well enough with black voters in the primary… so, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
** how is a gay white weatherman a better candidate??? **
Because many of us know Litesa and what her ability may be to be a good candidate. She ran a bad primary campaign, didn’t raise any money, didn’t build off her endorsements, etc. Also, many of her endorsements were on paper only and didn’t come with anything, which says a lot as well.
CLM, I don’t get into conspiracy theories, and just because the primary has come and gone and Lauf has won, doesn’t make the truth I’ve written about her go away.
Frankly, CLM, you’re acting like a “crime syndicate” right now trying to shut me up and get with the Lauf program.
I can’t, nor can I deny that if the general election is held tomorrow, I would likely vote for Foster over Lauf, and not just leave it blank.
Wouldn’t be the first time I split my ticket.
But the election is not tomorrow, and I already said I would watch and see how Lauf with her campaign transforms into general election mode.
If I see positive changes, I, like most mainstream independent voters, will be convinced to vote for Lauf.
But if Lauf turns into another Madison Cawthorn, Lauren Boebert or Marjorie Taylor Greene for the general election, then I’m voting/supporting Foster. Period.
If it comes down to a Foster in a Democratic minority is better for our country then a Lauf in a Republican majority, I have to go with prayers I asked a while back when it was long ago seen Lauf would win the primary.
**you’re acting like a “crime syndicate” right now trying to shut me up and get with the Lauf program.**
You can’t be serious.
Does Lopez work for the dying, BLM worshipper, AIPAC puppet, Foster?
I’m beginning to think so!
She’s not a great candidate but what mortal sin has she committed that gives you pause to not support her over a Democrat like Foster in a general election when you regularly vote for Republicans?
It doesn’t make sense to me.