UPDATE 7/14/22, 10:40AM CDT: The NRCC did acknowledge Catalina Lauf’s victory on June 29, but it was not distributed through the NRCC communications channels including Twitter. The NRCC section has been updated to include their statement.

==== END OF UPDATE ====

It’s been over a week and a half since Catalina Lauf’s (R, Woodstock) primary victory in the 11th Congressional District, and campaign activity has slowed as her campaign continues to transition into the general election.

No announcements from Lauf about her fall campaign since her June 30 radio interview with Dan Proft and Jeanne Ives, and none are expected for at least a couple of weeks.

Based on her social media posts, after attending a local Independence Day observance last week, Lauf has been out of town visiting family out-of-state, and hopefully for her, getting some “R & R” before the fall campaign begins in earnest.

The next Federal Election Commission (FEC) campaign disclosure filings are due at the end of next week, for the reporting period from June 9 through June 30. The next filing will combine as the 2nd quarter filing and Post-primary report.

Due to the late June primary, the general election campaign time period is cut short, and all Republican nominees facing strong Democratic incumbents don’t have the usual 7 1/2 months between a March primary and a November general election. We are now within 4 months of the November 8 General Election, and early voting and vote-by-mail ballots hit the streets on September 29.

Between now and the week before Labor Day, Lauf and her campaign must have their general election battle plan developed and implemented to have any chance of winning.

As I’ve written elsewhere, IL-11 should begin to see evidence of her general election strategy by mid-to-late July, within the next two weeks.

Here are some of my notes/observations about IL-11 I’ve noticed since the primary.

Cassandra Tanner Miller admits in writing what happened to her campaign

In a Facebook post, Cassandra Tanner Miller (R, Elgin) who finished 5th in the IL-11 primary, admitted in writing what many had suspected and all will celebrate Mom and Clayton doing well since his May 16th birth, with belated congratulations to Tanner Miller and her husband Brady Johnson:

“My pregnancy was a huge role in it [loss in the primary].

“I had to step aside because my health and Clayton’s health was failing the last two months of pregnancy.

“I was at doctor’s everyday and hospitalized several times.

“It was a very stressful pregnancy that could of ended terribly bad had I not pulled back and focused on what was most important and that’s our health.

“The future is bright and I’m happy to say I’m proud regardless of how it turned out”

Cassandra Tanner Miller Facebook post

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In-state endorsements in IL-11 Republican primary carried little weight for Lauf opponents, with one exception

As was told up to primary election day, Lauf had no endorsements from any elected official or former elected official, even at the local level in Illinois. As it turned out, Lauf had the one endorsement that counted — the primary voters in achieving the 31.1% plurality win across the district.

2nd place finisher Jerry Evans (R, Warrenville) and 3rd place finisher Mark Carroll (R, North Aurora) fought for endorsements all across the district, and for the most part, the endorsements were meaningless.

There was an exception – Evans’ win in Will County was big, and was the only county where Lauf finished a distant 2nd in the three counties she lost (DuPage and Cook were other two). According to unofficial returns, Evans won Will County with a plurality of 33.6% of the primary vote, over 13 percentage points ahead of Lauf. The county turned out to be just under 7% of the district, but Evans had endorsements from Will County-based State Central Committeeperson (and former Bolingbrook Village President) Roger Claar, along with the DuPage Township Republican organization and Will County Board Member Gretchen Fritz.

Will County appears to be the only county where local endorsements followed the rule of “if you endorse, then carry”.

All of the other endorsements, including in DuPage County where Evans won by negligible margin didn’t stop Lauf from winning the counties of the endorsers in McHenry, Kane, Lake and DeKalb counties, including:

• Jeanne Ives (Evans)
• State Representatives Jeff Keicher and Keith Wheeler (Carroll)
• IL-14 State Central Committeeperson Laura Pollastrini (Carroll)
• Lake County Republicans Executive Committee (Carroll)
• McHenry County Board Chairman Mike Buehler (Evans)
• Kane County Board Member Barb Wojnicki (Evans)

Yes, the campaign contributions will be checked once the final FEC reports are filed this month, to see if some of the endorsers backed up their preferred candidate financially.

Lauf enters General Election as decisive underdog with odds 8-1 against her flipping the seat

Five Thirty Eight did an interesting simulation for U.S. House contests across the country, where, according to their, “…model, simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often.”

The Fight Thirty Eight model predicts Lauf has only an 11 in 100 chance of pulling off the general election win, with Congressman Bill Foster (D, Naperville) winning 89 in 100 chances.

Translation, Fight Thirty Eight has nearly 9-1 odds against Lauf winning in November.

One factor the model did not include was Lauf being endorsed by the Club for Growth PAC on June 23, which makes Lauf eligible for the Club for Growth Action super PAC independent expenditures which could total into the millions of dollars spent to support Lauf, and/or oppose Foster.

That would help equalize the race, but to-date, no commitment from Club for Growth for any significant funding in IL-11, yet.

Given the Club for Growth factors were excluded, the odds should come down to 8-1 against Lauf winning the IL-11 in November.

For comparison in other competitive Chicagoland congressional districts, the same Five Thirty Eight model in IL-06 gives Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau (R) 2-1 odds against defeating Congressman Sean Casten (D, Downers Grove), and Kendall County Board Chairman Scott Gryder (R, Oswego) 3-1 odds against winning IL-14 from Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D, Naperville).

These metrics are real, and given Casten just finished an incumbent-v-incumbent primary, winning big, plus both Underwood and Casten are 2-termers, opposed to 7-term Foster who has more money in the bank (nearly $4.8 million through June 8), the odds against Lauf are realistic, in spite of a Republican year nationally.

Clearly, those who really want Lauf to win, the best way to help her right now, is through a significant campaign contribution if they can afford it.

Will that kind of general election appeal work for Lauf in the fall among general election voters? Hard to tell, but this recent comment from Grant D. Noble worth repeating:

“Yes, I’d be voting for Lauf with little enthusiasm.

“The average swing voter is a woman over 50 and she will have zero appeal to them.”

Grant D. Noble comment, 7/2/22

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Lauf’s general election campaign will need to prove Noble wrong, and another reason the 8-1 odds against Lauf flipping IL-11 realistic.

Official recognition by NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer

In the 2020 IL-14 Republican primary, I learned the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) will not formally recognize a primary winner until the Associated Press (AP) “calls” the race in favor of the winning candidate.

The IL-11 Republican primary on June 28 was called by the AP for Lauf on June 29 at 9:35AM CDT.

According to the NRCC, the statement from NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer (R, MN-06) was posted, but not tweeted, on June 29:

“Congratulations to Catalina Lauf on her primary victory. Bill Foster voted for the reckless policies that have led to record-high inflation. Illinois voters can’t afford Foster’s liberal agenda any longer.”

NRCC Press Release, June 29, 2022

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So McHenry County Blog readers, do you have any additional information you may have heard or seen since the primary concerning the Lauf campaign which was not covered in these notes or on social media? Please share appropriate comments and please keep them to your observations or mine about the IL-11 or other races mentioned in the article