IL-11: NRCC Places Catalina Lauf in Third-Tier in Young Guns Program

Catalina Lauf

With the open IL-17 the decided top target to flip in 2022, elevation of IL-06 and IL-13 nominees to “Young Gun” level in NRCC rating places Lauf in 3rd tier with IL-14 and IL-08

Early Tuesday morning July 19, Erin Covey, who covers U.S. House races for National Journal, tweeted the following which included a screenshot of a list of 10 Republican nominees from across the country who were being elevated to “Young Gun” status within the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Young Guns program.

Verification to the published list could not be found on the NRCC website, but Covey, the former C-SPAN and National Public Radio reporter who writes about U.S. House races for National Journal is a respected source for news about U.S. House races, and considered a reliable source.

So what does this announcement mean for IL-11 Republican challenger Catalina Lauf (R, Woodstock)?

Plenty, and as commenter Grant D. Noble pointed out in another article, he said IL-06 and IL-13 would possibly be competitive in the fall, in addition to the “big one”, the IL-17 open seat election.

The NRCC agrees with Noble.

To recap, there are six Illinois targeted NRCC congressional districts and their Democratic incumbents (if any) are:

  • IL-06 and two-term Congressman Sean Casten (D, Downers Grove) challenged by Mayor Keith Pekau (R, Orland Park)
  • IL-08 and three-term Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D, Schaumburg) challenged by Chris Dargis (R, Palatine)
  • IL-11 and 7-term Congressman Bill Foster (D, Naperville) challenged by Catalina Lauf (R, Woodstock)
  • IL-13 open seat where Nikki Budzinski (D, Springfield) and Regan Deering (R, Decatur) competing
  • IL-14 and two-term Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D, Naperville) challenged by Kendall County Board Chairman Scott Gryder (R, Oswego)
  • IL-17 open seat where Esther Joy King (R, East Moline) and Eric Sorensen (D, Moline) competing

While the NRCC has designated six targeted congressional districts in Illinois, just as in life, some NRCC targets are more equal than others, and the clear pecking order of priority in light of the NRCC announcement today is:

  • IL-17 — Millions of dollars in TV ad reservations by both the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC confirms the election of Esther Joy King is the top Illinois U.S. House priority, with money to back it up
  • NRCC Young Guns designations: IL-06 and IL-13, will see some spending by NRCC, but to date, no TV ad reservations have been made in the Chicago suburbs or the downstate Springfield or St. Louis media markets
  • NRCC “On the Radar” candidacies of IL-08, IL-11 and IL-14 Republican nominees, who will likely see no help from NRCC or outside spending from super PACs, very similar to the IL-14 race in 2020 where Republican nominee Jim Oberweis was left to spend his own money to be competitive, and almost pulled off the upset

Reminder to readers, the NRCC Young Guns program has different designations/levels for Republican candidates, attempting to flip competitive Democrat-held seats, or attempting to win competitive open seats.

The two levels are “Young Gun” and “On the Radar” (the “Contender” middle level used in 2020 was discontinued for 2022).

According to the NRCC:

“The Young Guns program is divided into multiple levels containing benchmarks that a candidate must achieve to advance in the program. Candidates who achieve full Young Guns status have successfully collaborated with the NRCC and completed the requirements that establish a path to victory on Election Day.”

So with today’s announcements, along with King, who was elevated to full Young Guns status among the first wave of Young Guns announcements for 2022, Pekau (IL-06) and Deering (IL-13) have satisfied the benchmarks three weeks after winning their respective competitive primaries.

For whatever reason, Dargis (IL-08), Lauf (IL-11) and Gryder (IL-14) have not, and while commenter Grant Noble pointed out Gryder’s endorsement of Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin in the gubernatorial primary is enough to do Gryder in among Republican voters in the fall, it’s more likely the fundraising of the Democratic incumbents being a bigger reason Dargis, Lauf and Gryder remain at “On the Radar” level, with cash-on-hand balances compared with the Republican nominees based on FEC reports released Friday:

  • IL-08 Raja Krishnamoorthi $12.7 million, Chris Dargis $10,099
  • IL-11 Bill Foster $4.9 million, Catalina Lauf $25,924
  • IL-14 Lauren Underwood $2.8 million, Scott Gryder $12,437

The only possible “ace-in-the-hole” Lauf has to help her in her fall race against Foster is the endorsement she picked up in late June from the Club for Growth PAC, provided the sister Club for Growth Action super PAC, will fund media buys for Lauf through independent expenditures.

Whether the outside spending through super PACs comes Lauf’s way remains to be seen.

Finally, voters supporting Lauf in the general, beginning with the over 15K Republican primary voters who cast ballots for Lauf in the primary, need to step-up themselves, and write check(s) to Lauf’s campaign for the general election.

And in the event some of Lauf’s financial supporters were maxed-out donors, or close to the max-out level of $2,900 in the primary, no problem, the general gives donors the opportunity to give an additional amount of monies beyond the $2,900 primary limit, with a $2,900 limit for the general.

Do you agree with the NRCC ratings assigned today? Please comment and keep the comments on the content of the article.


Comments

IL-11: NRCC Places Catalina Lauf in Third-Tier in Young Guns Program — 13 Comments

  1. In this day and age what with the horrible news of violence all over the U.S., it is incredibly dumb to keep a so-called term or label as “young guns”.

    Get a new name SOON.

    Young Stars, Young and Upcoming, etc.

    Whatever.

    Leave the stupidity of daily inane utterances to the top goofballs of the Democrat Party – Biden and his sidekick.

  2. bred winner, you raise a valid point, and hopefully, after the 2022 election cycle, especially if Kevin McCarthy emerges as Speaker of the House, he’ll make that change.

    Had the change been implemented before, some might have interpreted the name change after 2020 as a sign of weakness.

    We’ll see.

  3. The question is what is a good base election to model this one after.

    2018 was a D year because it was counter to Trump winning in 2016.

    If we are in 2014, the election swung 13 points in the R favor in Illinois.

    If we are in 2010, the election swung 19 points in the R favor.

    Average the two, its 16.

    Everyone of those districts will swing to the R at +16 (Some will be squeakers).

    The key is – as conservatives – we need to not lose our sh&t and stay focused and this could be a good year.

    This is a good reference for the effect of the redistricting.

    See Link:

    https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/illinois/

  4. Krishnamoorthi, or whatever his blasted name is, has submitted a resume for a fellowship at the University of Chicago.

    I guess he wants an escape hatch if he gets the boot in Nov.

    He’s a covidiot first class.

    Half the Hindus in his old dist. didn’t support him.

  5. Bred, don’t freak about young guns, just turn off the teevee.

  6. Nova Scotian, the fellow at University of Chicago is part of his prep to follow in footsteps of another Hyde Park resident…Barack Obama, into U.S. Senate when Durbin’s term is up in 2026.

  7. Get your popcorn and your scotch and sit back and hear my story.

    Did you know Pritzker and Congresswoman Robin Kelly are not good political allies? Pritzker did not back Kelly for Chairman of the party and prior to that Kelly did not support Pritzker for governor (she supported Biss). Kelly and Pritzker have had proxy wars in state central committee races. Those are the people who elect the chair. Pritzker likely still wants Kelly gone from that spot because he can’t count on her and vice versa. That election should be coming up in the next month or so.

    Should Joe Biden run for president in 2024 but then step aside after the convention, or perhaps even if there was a brokered convention, the DNC would play a large role in the nomination. (Super-delegates are not gone, I believe they’ve just had their discretion limited in the first round of voting.) State chairs are part of the DNC. Pritzker does not want Kelly to be the state chair who would be a member of the DNC.

    I’m not saying Pritzker would appoint Kelly should Durbin resign though — I think Underwood and Raja are at the top of that list, and whoever doesn’t get Durbin’s seat (which I think will happen before 2026) will go for Duckworth’s seat in 2028 as she’ll want to spend more time with her kids since she’s a new mom. The unknowns are who gets the senate seat first, Underwood or Raja; does Jesus “Chuy” Garcia gum up one of their aspirations; and if Pritzker can’t prevent Kelly from being the chair, then is there some other way he can placate her and if so what?

    It’s interesting that Clinton, Obama, and Pritzker are all from the same state — Pritzker has the blessing of Obama and Clinton even though many believe there is still a power struggle in the Democratic Party between Clinton and Obama followers. Some say it’s just geography for those two (Illinoisan) presidential candidates to both support Pritzker but I don’t think so… Pritzker himself wants to be a presidential candidate.

    Now Durbin is a very high ranking senator. Underwood is close to Obama and Biden. Raja has an absurd campaign war chest as if he’s preparing for a bigger struggle than his House seat. Robin Kelly and Jesus Garcia could be thorns for some people. But Pritzker definitely has his eyes set on 2024 for president otherwise he wouldn’t be going to New Hampshire (usually the second state to vote) nor would he be trying to make Illinois one of the early states to vote in 2024, which is obviously a way for him to build momentum in a presidential primary. He’s a midwest governor and a billionaire which means he can better self fund and theoretically does better electorally than someone like Gavin Newsom. The Democrats don’t have a deep bench. Other than Pritzker, Newsom, AOC, and Warren, I’m not sure who I’d list as a top tier candidate on that side.

    Pritzker would be in charge of appointing a senate replacement. If he magically became president, he might not have to vacate his job as governor until January 19/20 of 2025. Durbin could time his resignation so that his replacement doesn’t need to be on the ballot in 2024 (but if they get appointed too early they’d have to run in 2024 to fill out the remaining 2 years). Plus Pritzker is Jewish and could set up the first black female governor (Stratton) and there is some political value in that.

    But the fight between Pritzker and Kelly has always seemed off, and even some veteran Democrat leaning columnists are scratching their heads about it, wondering if there is more to it than just a disagreement about wonky FEC rules on fundraising for the state party by a chairman who is a member of congress. Pritzker has not made the case it has adversely affected them thus far, so why are Kelly and Pritzker having a proxy war for the SCC again?

    My guess is that Pritzker does not want an disloyal person who is the headhoncho from Illinois voting *against* him in a situation like a brokered convention or a snap DNC election. If someone powerful like the Illinois Democratic Party chair voted against the candidate from their own state, it would be symbolically devastating and could cause a crisis in confidence in Pritzker — a bandwagon or snowball effect that could sink his run.

  8. Correcting, great analysis, though there are a couple of holes concerning Chuy Garcia and Robin Kelly — age.

    Both Garcia and Kelly are 66 now, and would both be 68 come 2024.

    Krishnamoorthi is in his late 40s, and Underwood turns 36 in early October.

    After the issue with President Biden, youth is going to be a very important component to choosing future leaders among Democrats, starting with 2024 presidential nomination, and Governor Pritzker turns 57 by year-end.

    My latest article comparing Pritzker to California Governor Gavin Newsom is now up, and personal appearance DOES matter when you run for president, and Newsom is 55 (making him 57 in 2024) but he looks to be in his late 40s to early 50s, not mid-to-late 50s.

    Both Pritzker and Newsom have been speaking in Florida, and both Newsom and Pritzker were in DC in the past month (did you see the video of Newsom leaving the White House, while President Biden was overseas, as if he lived there already?).

    Durbin, given the rivalry you mentioned and the fact he backed Kelly for DPI chair, is NOT going to leave early and give Pritzker the chance to appoint his successor, short of Durbin passing on.

    Durbin will serve out his term and retire at age 80, and let the voters decide.

    Keep something else in mind, will President Biden make it to the end of his term?

    The Middle East trip, Biden looked/sounded terrible, and with the expected losses the Democrats will face, Biden may be forced out shortly after November 8, and likely after January 20, 2023, either on his own or 25th Amendment, it could be President Kamala Harris next year.

    If that happens, it’s doubtful either Newsom or Pritzker would primary the first black and Asian American woman POTUS.

    Could a President Harris tap Senator Tammy Duckworth as her vice president?

    Maybe, but that depends on the composition of the U.S. Senate.

    My guess, Harris will tap Pete Buttigieg as her vice president, given all the firsts such an appointment would be.

    Either way, enough popcorn for midweek, some interesting stuff Correcting.

  9. Thinking of potus Harris and vp Pete makes me want to vomit.

    It could happen

  10. Was this thread supposed to be about:

    “IL-11: NRCC Places Catalina Lauf in Third-Tier in Young Guns Program”

    Pritzker for president? You have to ask how it came to this? Why is the party of slavery, Jim Crow, Klan, George Wallace, segregation even still around?

    How does a major(?) political party get away with such awful politicians and candidates? Dumb as sacks of rocks Biden and Harris? Pritzker? A guy who inherited his fortune and has zero likability? Three of the worst ever presidents of the US – Jimmy Carter, Barak Hussein Obama, Joe Biden.

    Why is the Democrat party still around? They give a lot of stuff away? Garbage cans in Chicago. Obama phones. Giveaways, free stuff started in the Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society?

  11. I had not realized the age of Kelly or Garcia.

    A hypothetical new president would not want to pull someone from the U.S Senate to fill the spot, I agree. That could change after the midterm though.

    Impeaching and removing a president is actually easier to do and requires less support than Amendment 25 removal. Amendment 25 removal requires 2/3 from both houses plus a majority of cabinet members while impeachment and removal requires majority in the house plus 2/3 of senate. And it has never been done.

    I too have wondered if Biden will step aside after the midterms which would allow Harris to serve out the remainder of the term and potentially another two terms after that, but there are just so many reports that Biden and particularly Jill Biden hates Harris. His age and health are definitely factors as far as getting through his first term, but lately I’m wondering if there’s an effort to get Harris out (somehow) first. Lots of resignations on her team, she doesn’t do well under pressure, she doesn’t seem to like her job, and even journalists are wondering if Biden is trying to sabotage her. If Biden were to nominate a new VP, I think someone like Murkowski or Romney would approve the vote based on the “decency” argument or something like that.

    And back to something more germane to OP, I had said long ago that
    1. Lauf would win the primary; Carroll and Evans would split the vote; Lauf would have a tough time against Foster.
    2. Districts 6 and 13 looked like better prospects than 14 or 11. It seems NRCC agrees.

    I need to bookmark a website that shows % of college educated and racial demographics of the districts. It might be time to reassess the likelihood of 14 and 11 flipping, but Raja isn’t in danger. Last time around Republicans didn’t even bother running a candidate against him, and he has like 12 million dollars to spend.

  12. Correcting, as far as IL-08 (Chris Dargis), IL-11 (Catalina Lauf) & IL-14 (Scott Gryder) are nominees for 2022, I think the NRCC strategy will be recruiting these 3 for a future election when their respective seats are open.

    IL-08: Raja Krishnamoorthi turned 49 yesterday, and clearly is preparing for a Senate race in 2026. When the seat opens up, Dargis will be ready to run again, while Democrats will likely run Cristina Castro.

    IL-11: Bill Foster will be 67 in October, and likely will retire in 2024 or 2026. Lauf, assuming she’s still living in Illinois, will be ready, and possibly some real life experiences to shore up her anorexic resume.

    IL-14: Lauren Underwood clearly being groomed for Senate run in 2026 or 2028. She’ll be 36 this year so by early 40s, she’ll be ready to move-up.

    Either way, Dargis, Lauf and likely Gryder are all toast in November.

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