GOV PRITZKER LEADS SENATOR BAILEY BY NINE POINTS
from Victory Research:
PRITZKER FALLS BELOW FIFTY PERCENT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2022
In the first Illinois Poll after the June primary, Governor JB Pritzker leads his Republican opponent State Senator Darren Bailey by nine points.
The first-term Governor was the choice of 48.9% of the respondents, while the downstate State Senator received 39.0% of the vote.
The results are part of the latest Illinois poll, conducted July 17-19, 2022.
It is a semi-monthly survey conducted since 2001 by Victory Research, an independent polling company based in Chicago.
The poll of 1208 likely Illinois general election voters has a margin of error of 2.82% and was conducted by live callers. Respondents answered on land lines (411) and cell phones (797). www.illinoispoliticsblog.com.
Pritzker, a first-term Governor, fell below the 50% mark for the first time in 2022, according to the poll, in both the head to head matchup with Bailey, and in a question about whether he has earned another term in office.
In the January Illinois Poll, for example, Pritzker’s “re-elect” number was 51.7%, and in June it was 50.2%. Now it is 47.3%.
In the head to head matchup with Senator Bailey, Governor Pritzker received 55.2% in January, and 51.8% in June, and now it is 48.9%.
Geographically, Governor Pritzker holds a wide lead over Senator Bailey in heavily Democratic Chicago (78.0-17.3%), and a narrow lead in Suburban Cook County (49.8-42.3%).
Bailey leads in every other part of the state, with his strongest region being his home area of Southern Illinois (52.0-34.0%).
In a perhaps ominous sign for the Governor, despite the bruising GOP primary for Governor, Republicans appear mostly united behind Senator Bailey, who has 81.3% of GOP votes, only slightly less than Governor Pritzker’s 82.4% of Democratic votes, according to the poll.
In addition, Independent voters favor Bailey over Pritzker (47.8-36.7%).
Pritzker’s percentage falling below 50% could be significant if history is a guide.
In the previous two off-year elections, with a Democrat (Barack Obama in 2010 and 2014), the incumbent Democratic Governor (Pat Quinn), finished election day with less than 50% of the vote.
In 2010, Quinn received 46.8% of the vote, eking out a victory over downstate State Senator Bill Brady by approximately 32,000 votes statewide.
In 2014, Quinn lost to outsider Bruce Rauner, receiving 46.4%.
The poll is in line with other recently published polls.
A poll by GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio in June showed Governor Pritzker’s vote total at 50% even, while a Morning Consult poll released this week had the Governor’s approval rating at 51%.
This poll comes thru as Dynata on your landline caller ID if you want to take it.
It’s verbal not push.
They have called me a few times.
The focus was more on the Severino/ Schneider race with the governor and senate races sprinkled in.
More like leads in doughnut eating by a ‘Bakers Dozen’.
I always wondered what happened to Fred Flintstone.
All voters in Illinois should be informed about Pritzker and toilets disconnected in one of his mansions.
https://www.illinoispolicy.org/federal-investigators-digging-deeper-into-pritzkers-331k-property-tax-break/
“Federal prosecutors have been requesting records from the Cook County assessor’s office about a $331,000 tax break the governor got after removing the toilets during remodeling of a mansion he owns next to his own home. Authorities sought the name of every employee who was involved in the tax break, along with associated communications.”
Prosecutors were looking into the toilet issue in the summer of 2020. Here we are in the summer of 2022 and there is nothing, NOTHING, in the media about the progress of this TWO-YEAR old INVESTIGATION. Where are Woodward and Bernstein?
Do any of Chicago’s TV news stations, radio news stations, newspapers do INVESTIGATIVE journalism?
Surprisingly not so good numbers for Pritzker and decent numbers for Bailey in suburban Cook and collar counties.
JT’s insight is so riveting.
Those numbers actually look quite bad for Pritzker, I would expect a larger lead.
That’s actually starting to get close, apparently 12% are undecided with a lead of only 9%.
I think he can lose, he knows he can, that’s why he spent money trying to help Bailey.
I don’t see many undecided voters breaking towards the democrats, so this is closer than it appears.
Give Bailey time to get his message out.
Those numbers will change.
I fully encourage the Pritzker campaign to spend every penny they can to help Bailey get his message out.
Please, run all the ads you can about how is prolife, wants parents to be in charge of children’s education, thinks boys are boys and girls are girls, how he would not have locked you down.
All of these are popular positions and favor the Republicans.
Sorry Martin, you live in a bubble.
JB will still probably win here, but the way the house and senate are about to flip will say it all.
Why are blacks allowed to vote?