Observations by Sage Political Observer Russell Stewart

Russell Steward, who lives in or near the Northwestern edge of Chicago, writes a weekly column.

Most recently he is in prediction mode.

His title is wonderful:

REPUBLICANS ARE NOW PEAKING BECAUSE TRUMP IS NOT PEEPING

He notes,

“It is rare, but Trump finally got something right. Resisting his narcissistic and egotistic impulses, the ex-president understood that out-of-sight is out-of-mind. He did not announce his 2024 presidential candidacy before the Nov. 8 election…

“The phrase ‘peaking’ describes a political art whereby a candidate musters his/her resources, sort of like a military battle, and then deploys money, manpower and advertising 14-21 days before the election. Timing is crucial.

“The goal is to develop momentum and gin up the voter base by showcasing a fresh message which drowns out the opposition’s stale message, in this case

  • abortion,
  • Trump and
  • Jan. 6.

“The Democrats peaked-out between June 24 (the Dobbs decision) and Oct. 1. They are now eclipsed by the pre-Dobbs issues –

  • inflation,
  • gas prices,
  • wealth (stock, 401k and IRA) shrinkage,
  • crime and
  • immigration –

which have gotten much worse and less tolerable in the past month.

ILLINOIS: In politics a do-over is different from a make over. A bad haircut can get a do-over. A bad heart surgery cannot get a do-over. Darren Bailey (R) cannot be done-over by a make over.

Bailey logo.

“He is way too ‘Trumpish’ and too much of a country bumpkin for IL voters north of I-80, which is the entire Chicago metro area.

“He is going to lose big for governor to J.B. Pritzker (D), probably by more than the 713,495 votes by which Bruce Rauner (R) lost in 2018. That was a 54.3-38.8 spread in a 4,547,042 turnout. Politics is fluid and nothing lasts forever. I can remember all the media talking-heads in 2008 swooning about an ‘Obama Era’ of Democratic dominance which would last for a generation or more. It lasted 8 years. It gave us Trump. It will take IL Republicans a decade to re-brand after the Trump Era.

“Recent polls make Republicans wish for a primary do-over.”

Federally, the Republicans’ peaking at the right time means,

U.S. SENATE: It’s 50-50 with 35 seats up on Nov. 8 – 21R and 14D. So Republicans start in a hole, but 12 seats (6R, 6D) are deemed “in play” and 3 are deemed Pure Toss-Ups  (NV, GA, PA), meaning polling has been consistently within the margin-of-error for the past month. It was originally thought that Republicans’ choice of Trump-endorsed nominees like Mehmet Oz (PA), J.D. Vance (OH), Ted Budd (NC), Don Buldoc (NH), Herschel Walker (GA) and Blake Masters (AZ) would be an anchor and give rise to candidate-quality concerns. But with Trump out-of-sight, Biden’s job-approval mired in the low 40s and economy/crime now uppermost, all are peaking at the right time, as are Adam Laxalt (NV) and Tiffany Smiley (WA).

Smiley is running against Washington state institution Patty Murray, a 30-year senator who wants Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) leadership job. Smiley is down by only 5 points. The Georgia race is so tight that a January runoff is likely (as in 2021), Buldoc is fading and CO (D) looks safe.

GOVERNORS: Republican incumbents in WI, IA and FL have opened leads, polling over 50 percent, with Marco Rubio (R-FL) up 9 points over Val Demings (D). Going into September the expectation was that Democrats would gain PA, hold GA and AZ, and lose NV. It would remain 50-50. But Republicans now have a realistic shot at 54-55 seats. That’s called master peaking.


Comments

Observations by Sage Political Observer Russell Stewart — 7 Comments

  1. Q: What’s the difference between a Democrat and a catfish?

    A: One is an ugly, scum sucking bottom-feeder and the other is a fish.

  2. It’s of no matter because we all KNOW that Trump WILL declare sometime after the DEMOCRATS
    get their collective asses kicked in the midterms – MAGA now, MAGA forever !

  3. Bailey might lose by a larger vote number than Rauner but I think he will lose by a small % than Rauner lost by.

    (That’s because I think turnout will be higher this year than in 2018.)

    However, it’s possible Bailey will lose by a smaller vote number and smaller # than Rauner did.

    Also, by what metric is Bolduc fading?

    That race has tightened in the last few weeks.

    Polls which used to show Hasan leading now show it basically tied and RCP average even has Bolduc with a slight lead.

    It went from a lean blue district to a tossup, and now if you narrow the search to eliminate tossups it is marked as more likely than not a Republican flip.

    The last two polls showed Bolduc winning by 1 and a tie.

    A month ago Hasan was up by 6-7.

    If you use FiveThirtyEight, polling average has gone from Hasan leading by 4 to Hasan leading by less than 3 in the last month.

    In most races throughout the country, momentum is on Republicans’ side.

    New York governor race is now polling within the low single digits and there was even a tie poll within the past few days.

    The biggest disappointments in polls right now for GOP are Michigan governor race which have pretty consistently showed Whitmer up and the CO Senate race which show Bennett up (but that’s more understandable than the Michigan situation).

    Oh, and arguably the WI governor race — you’d think Evers would be losing by more but the polls have always shown it being pretty close.

    This guy is really not a “Sage” or making predictions.

    Abortion was important after Dobbs but then it faded and gas is a big issue now?

    How does that show any wisdom?

    He’s just looking at polls.

    Wow what insight…

    Is that the sort of wisdom this “sage” extols?

    That’s the genius of political punditry, cal???

    I’m not impressed.

    What’s his explanation for why Salvi isn’t polling higher than Bailey if people just don’t like southern accents?

    Salvi doesn’t have a southern accent so why is she losing by similar margins as Bailey is in just about every poll?

    I think this guy is an idiot, Cal.

  4. I asked a friend of mine to stop sending me Stewart’s prognostications because, typical of constant bad analysis, he had Bailey losing the primary.

    He’s a liberal who hates Bailey.

    I am voting for Bailey but since early March I’ve had him winning the primary but losing to Pritzker 50 to 45% as even the fraud won’t stop the consolidation of the third party vote Rauner didn’t get plus some fatigue with Pritzker.

    But notice how nobody is polling any more because it would show a close contest.

    It’s likely I’ve underestimate Bailey’s fall margin like I underestimated Bailey’s primary margin of victory.

    Despite the media, the average voter had figured out reality, which is why suddenly the Dems are even worried about losing Illinois Governor with Biden and Harris coming here now:

    https://www.nbcchicago.com/illinois-midterm-election-2022/biden-harris-to-visit-illinois-this-weekend-ahead-of-midterm-elections/2984878/#new_tab

    Add in Obama and the governor race looks a lot closer than I ever expected.

  5. Noble, as is his wont, is right on target.

    These polls suck, and are the foundation of the election rigging that goes on in so many jurisdictions.

    Why isn’t there a federal rule for voter picture IDs.

    And why can’t we go back to election DAY and not election 6 weeks (2 wks following election day for cheat by mail ballots) in many jurisdictions?

    Why do the Satanic demorats think abortion is the big pressing issue???

    Is their base that unmotivated?

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