A firm called Split Ticket has evaluated all congressional districts and predicts a dead heat in 2024, with advantage to the Democrats.
Split Ticket sees a 218-217 split in the favor of Democrats resulting from the 2024 elections.
Locally, Bill Foster’s district is found to be
The whole analysis, with a search engine for every congressional district, can be found here.
Never heard of this Split Ticket firm and since the major ratings services have yet to issue 2024 ratings except for known vacancies in 2024 (like CA-47 being open with Congresswoman Katie Porter running for U.S. Senate), it’s something to talk about before Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball or Cook Political Report with Amy Walter do their initial ratings, with the latter assigning its Cook PVI rating for 2024.
Last year, Republican Catalina Lauf lost to Democratic Congressman Bill Foster by 12.9 percentage points.
With a partisanship rating of D+13.3, looks like the Foster margin of victory is being padded for a presidential election, with Illinois’ 19 electoral votes already given to the Democrats.
So, unless Republicans nominate a superstar candidate with cross-party appeal for President, the Republican nominee in IL-11 will again in 2024 not get help from the top of the ticket.
Couple that reality with the likely presence of an abortion constitutional amendment at the top of the ballot, IL-11 will be written off with most of the state in 2024.
Foster will be 69 going into November of 2024, and he’s in good health, and as long as he’s running, Cook & Sabato will likely rate IL-11 as “Likely Democrat” just like 2022.
It’s mid January, and thus far, no Republican has filed papers with the FEC in IL-11 for 2024 yet (2020 Krishna Bansal is on file because he has money in his FEC committee, but no indication he’s running in 2024).
Serious candidates for 2024 need to be actively raising money by mid 2023, but given this state, this district in a presidential year, short of a surprise Foster retirement, don’t expect Republicans to flip IL-11 next year.
Foster is not in good health, and I’m not referring just to his mental health.
Give it up with the attempted gaslighting Kangaroo.
When I talked with Congressman Foster at Crystal Lake Chamber event on November 1, he looked and sounded fine, and he’s not going anywhere until he decides to call it a career.
Also remember, Catalina Lauf was too cowardly last year to debate Foster.
One other thing, the Democrat bench is very deep when Foster’s retirement does come.
There will be no shortage of candidates to succeed Foster in IL-11.