As the decade closes out so does FEC fundraising reporting period

It’s December 30, and there are now two days remaining for Federal Election Commission (FEC) Q419 campaign disclosure reporting period.

Short of any credible polling, preferably from independent sources not associated with a campaign, the quarterly FEC reports is a good indicator to see how a campaign’s message is resonating with campaign donors.

Granted, the donors may not live in the district, or even Illinois, but these people, even in small dollar quantities, giving financially to a candidate of their choice is a response to a candidate’s messaging.

To review, what will happen after the clock strikes Midnight tomorrow night and we all say “Happy New Year” to the decade of the 2020s, or MMXX:

• FEC Form 3, or F3 quarterly reports due to FEC before midnight on January 15, and upon submission, they become public
• The Chicago Tribune and other local media will do their first round of public opinion polling on the races of regional interest, and the Republican primary in the 6th and 14th districts will be among them
  • In the 14th, Oberweis will win this January poll based on name ID and minimal mass marketing at the early stage. The battle will be among the other six for 2nd and who will be seen as the sole, viable alternative to Oberweis
• Mid-to-late January, local media polls will be released
• January 22, 14th congressional district field meets for debate at MCC, sponsored by the McHenry County Republican Party
• January 15-31, various PACs and SuperPACs will decide to endorse individual candidates based on their year-end fundraising
• February 6, early voting begins for the March 17 primary

Many things can change in that very rough schedule, and many activities will be added, but that is what is known generally on December 30.

So, what will be some questions to look forward to answering with the Q419 numbers?

• Will Dr. Jay Kinzler raise enough money to be competitive with Jeanne Ives, whom many have already placed as the presumptive Republican nominee?
• Will Ives be able to maintain, if not exceed her impressive fundraising from Q3 into Q4?
• Will Jerry Evans’ first FEC F3 filing show him to be competitive?
• Will Jim Oberweis hit the $1 million mark for total 2019 fundraising?
• Will Ted Gradel be able to keep up with Oberweis’ fundraising lead?
• Will the $100K+ amount cash-on-hand for Gradel that he cannot spend in the primary continue to grow, far exceeding all the other candidates?
• Will Sue Rezin and Catalina Lauf be able to maintain their respective paces for fundraising they established in their 3rd quarter number, now that Q4 is their first complete reporting period as candidates?
• Will James Marter’s investment in building his social media following (over 4,844 followers on Twitter) translate to increased campaign contributions to where he can be competitive with Oberweis, Gradel, Rezin and Lauf?
• Will major PACs and SuperPACs which are already giving to Jeanne Ives in the 6th district begin making their choices in the 14th based on Q4 numbers, including but not limited to:
  • House Freedom Fund
  • Susan B. Anthony List
  • VIEWPAC (women only)
  • Elise Stefanik’s Elevate PAC (women only, and Rezin and Lauf must raise $250K from donors to be considered for endorsement)
  • Winning 4 Women

Just a few questions Q419 will begin to answer.

After the first of the year and as the 15th arrives, or candidates begin filing their FEC F3s, the tote-board for Q419 will be used:

And today, here is an example of James Marter’s online ad he’s sending through Twitter and Facebook: