538 Projections

National media love to cite the web site Five Thirty Eight.

Today, 538 is projecting the Peter Roskam-Sean Casten as a toss-up.

538’s projection of the 6th congressional district results.

Since Friday, however, 538 has radically changed its prediction in the Randy Hultgren-Lauren Underwood contest.

In the closing weekend of the election, 538 is predicting that Lauren Underwood has a 69% chance of winning.

The popular vote predictions are very close for both candidates:

538 predicts that Sean Casten will beat Peter Roskam by 2/10 of one percent.

538 predicts Lauren Underwood will defeat Randy Hultgren 51.5% to 48.5%.

When Joe Walsh beat Melissa Bean, 538 gave Bean an 88% chance of re-election.


538 Projections — 1 Comment

  1. I really think that Underwood wins this election.

    1. I have seen tons of Underwood signs

    2. I had two different people knocking on my door to support Underwood.

    3. Hultgren going to do a photo-op with President Trump a few days ago shows to me that Hultgren believes he is behind.

    4. The attack against Underwood for being a practicing Nurse came to late.

    The last 2 items really show to me that Hultgren knows he is behind.

    If I recall Hultgren took out a Dem for this seat and the Walsh/Bean votes were before the district was reconfigured.

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