From a Friend of McHenry County Blog:
Homicides in American cities are falling at the fastest pace in decades, bringing them close to levels they were at before a pandemic-era jump.
Nationwide, homicides dropped around 20% in 133 cities from the beginning of the year through the end of March compared with the same period in 2023, according to crime-data analyst Jeff Asher, who tabulated statistics from police departments across the country.
If the trend continues, the U.S. could be on pace for a year like 2014, which saw the lowest homicide rate since the 1960s.
Philadelphia saw a 35% drop in killings as of April 12 compared with the same period last year, police data show. In New York City, homicides fell 15% through April 7. Homicides in Columbus, Ohio, plunged 58% through April 7.
And Boston had just two homicides this year as of March 31, compared with 11 over the same time frame last year.
The drop is an acceleration of a trend that began last year, following a surge in the number of homicides during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The declines so far in 2024, on top of last year’s drop, mirror the steep declines in homicides of the late 1990s.
If the trend continues, the U.S. could be on pace for a year like 2014, which saw the lowest homicide rate since the 1960s.
But police officials and researchers cautioned that crime trends aren’t always consistent and future homicide rates are difficult to predict.
Some cities, like Denver, Los Angeles, and Portland, Ore., reported rises in homicides as of early April, Asher’s data show. But such increases are outliers.
More typical is Baltimore, where homicides have declined 30% so far this year.
During the pandemic, homicide rates shot up around the country, sparking concerns that the progress made during a decades-long drop in violent crimes had been undone.
The number of homicides in the U.S. rose nearly 30% in 2020 from the prior year to 21,570, the largest single-year increase ever recorded by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
In some cities, the homicide decline has been accompanied by a reduction in property crime as well. San Francisco, where property crime has been a huge problem in recent years, has recorded decreases in burglaries, robberies, larceny thefts and motor vehicle thefts so far in 2024.
The city has also seen nine homicides as of April 7, compared with 13 during the same period in 2023.
Crime researchers have been particularly struck by the drops in cities that have been the most plagued with violent crime in recent years, like New Orleans.
In the first half of 2022, it had the highest homicide rate of any major U.S. city, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of crime data.
Through April 10 of this year, the number of killings dropped 39% from the same period in 2023.
This is a statistical game.
Murders are still way up from before the Summer of George Floyd, when every black person in America learned that they don’t have to obey lawful police orders if they damn well don’t feel like it.
The other issue with this statistical mirage is that up until 2020 the FBI based its stats on violent crimes from two databases, UCR and NIBRS.
In 2021, the FBI transitioned to NIBRS submissions only.
Conveniently, the most hardcore leftist jurisdictions, like NYC, refuse to report violent crimes to NIBRS.
The Marshall Project estimates that this under-reports violent crime by about 25%.
https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs
Thanks for the racist summary. Just couldn’t stop when you were ahead.
Good read and info Anonymous. Thanks for the share. Why these cities refuse to participate goes against their attempts to get rid of the 2A?
According to the heyjackass site, Chicago has had 155 murders so far this year. I couldn’t get a number for April 8, but it’s almost certainly higher than the 119 reported in the chart.
The FBI numbers have been pretty well debunked. The Washington Examiner ran a good article written by a former assistant FBI director that explains some of the games that the FBI is playing with the data.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/fairness-justice/2953562/bad-data-from-the-fbi-mislead-about-crime/
The FBI “estimates” the crime numbers in cities that either don’t report data or report it in the old format, and it’s estimates always seem to fall on the low side. I don’t know if this happens because of a deliberate effort to deceive or mere incompetence, because either explanation is entirely plausible when dealing with the FBI.
**Chicago has had 155 murders so far this year. I couldn’t get a number for April 8, but it’s almost certainly higher than the 119 reported in the chart.**
“from the beginning of the year through the end of March”
#ReadingComprehension
Dear Anonymous Bigot, the article states “The number of homicides in the U.S. rose nearly 30% in 2020”.
Wouldn’t that make your comment irrelevant, since the comparison is not for prior years?
Strike 1!
Also, NYC is included in the list.
Strike 2!
You get one more pitch.
Yea, easy for Shake to say with his Public Sector issued Kevlar, Bullet Proof Gov. vehicles and assigned Security Detail.
Sure they are because even the criminals are moving out to the suburbs and taking their crime spree mentality with them
Cmon DJ. Dave Lowitzki had to read in detail all those bills he’s proud of lobbying to get passed. You know murdering the unborn, higher taxes on IL residents and his promotion of the LGBTQ agenda like drag shows for children.
Again he touted how proud he was about these yet they’ve all disappeared from his updated website.
What’s the over under on his second marriage lasting?
My takeaway is that cities with strong conceal carry laws have lower murder rates.
Not even on the list is Phoenix, the 10th largest in USA.
Open carry is very common and a concealed carry permit is a four hour class.
Chicago is a gun free area😇
Meanwhile, I’ve lost the map for those Claymore Mines I placed all over…
Maybe I’ll call the County and tell them that asshole D J’s got all kinds of Zoning Violations, to get someone out here to walk the property.
I call BS on this skewd info… like how bydumb is beating T-Man at the polls…
#Nefarious Shake
The bottom of the chart says “Figures through April 8th of each year.”
#reading comprehension
I don’t know why everybody would feed Shake comments.
He’s just going to use them to get a million dollar Grant, for that Prevention of Democrats Being Made Into Sausage Links, thing he’s been working on.
Bullshit DOJ lies. Ask the front line cops and check out the coroners homicide stats!
The Treasury stats are screwed too.
As for the “statistical mirage”, in 2021 the FBI changed its data collection method, a change years in the making. It was a one year transition, and the FBI had to estimate some data, including New York City and California, based on incomplete data.
That hardly renders all the data from all years, including 2021, useless.
Here’s a quote from the FBI when the 2022 data was released:
“For the 2022 data year, to provide nationally representative data, the FBI accepted NIBRS data and SRS data submissions from agencies. NIBRS data was submitted by 13,293 law enforcement agencies whose jurisdictions covered more than 256 million United States inhabitants. SRS data was accepted from 2,431 non-transitioned agencies representing 55,441,278 inhabitants. These agencies added an additional 16.6% population coverage, bringing the total national population coverage for Crime in the Nation, 2022 to 93.5%.”
Wow! 93.5%. Not bad!
Strike 3! You’re out!
Anonymous, take a little stroll in Englewood or Austin. Let’s see how you fare!
Anonymous Responder, you’re really going to just take the FBI’s word for it that they’re doing a good job?
It’s crazy how Trump has caused every leftie to immediately start boot licking.
Unprincipled garbage people.
Batman, I suspect you and others that are awake will agree with this.
https://rumble.com/v4opeue-pink-floyd-hey-you.html
The 3 letter agencies controls the government which is supposed to be controlled by us.